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Vantis Health Files
A History of Accurate Forecasts
For the first time ever, Ipsos Marketing is making its pharmaceutical experience and norms available
in syndicated reports focused on the most important new Rx product launches. Long known for accurate forecasting, we are providing our analysis of the most important recent and upcoming launches.
Here's how Ipsos Marketing Health Files Work
Four times a year we write concepts for the most impactful, most important new drugs and biologicals. These concepts are showed to physicians and the physicians are asked for their reaction on the Ipsos Marketing Key Measures.
Each concept's scores become the basis for a brief report and market assessment.
Unparalleled context, by comparing each new concept to its deep trove of historical, databased Rx concepts.
And our results are often different than what you see elsewhere. First, all findings are based on
statistically valid physician research. Our analysts identify very specific marketing challenges for each product. Plus, we report on the inherent appeal of drugs and biologicals to both physicians and consumers. We comment on the design of clinical trials. And lastly, we critically assess the market size based on previous
research. Sometimes the Ipsos Marketing position matches industry and Wall Street's, but as often we identify pitfalls or upsides. The Ipsos Marketing position is authoritative, as it is based on 30 years of validated forecasts, with a published success record of more than 90% of forecasts being within 15% of actual in-market performance. Even for earlier stage products, where uncertainty is high, Ipsos Marketing will draw a line in the sand.
In each report:
- Potential of the idea. Is there a broad or narrow market for this offer?
- The consumer. Is there a clear, definable, reachable buyer?
- The message. Does it sell itself, or will marketers struggle to build awareness and understanding of the offer?
- Key Findings/Conclusions/Point-of-View
- Market success score
- Key measure scorecard
- Key market segments
- Critical success factors
- Forecast commentary
- Communications Impact
- Top 5 (phrases)
- Communication Potential Index
The Ipsos Marketing Difference
- Proven results – we use a combination of proven over – statement adjustments, market structure and mix modeling analyses to predict market demand and the ROI associated with actions you might take.
- We have made significant progress in understanding how to accommodate the highly varied nature of health care:
- Low v. high incidence diseases
- Lifestyle v. essential drugs
- The influence of specialist v. generalists v. ancillary providers
- Multi-stakeholder decisions
- Payer/cost-sharing influence
- We are a group of consultants and modelers – not just people who run models.
- Our approaches are rooted in validated B2B and multi-stakeholder/influencer modeling.
- Our approach is healthcare professional-driven and our models center around the point-of-care prescribe/recommend dynamic.
- In other words, we are not simply building on a traditional consumer "CPG"approach.
- Consumers (or other influencer professionals) are not always required, but easy to add since we have vast experience on both sides.
- Our approach focuses on both the B2B using/buying/prescribing process and competition (captured in stimuli and questionnaire design).
- Large focused database of observations and validations.
The following concepts have been evaluated in the first wave, available May 2010:
Cancer/Hematology
- Provenge – Autologous Prostate Cancer Vaccine
- Avodart for Prostate Cancer Indication
- Hematide – Next generation drug for Kidney Failure induced
Anemia
- OncoVAX® – Autologous Prostate Cancer Vaccine
Weight Loss
- Contrave
- Lorcaserin hydrochloride
- Qnexa
Diabetes
- DPP IV
- SGLT 2 Inhibitor (next generation 12 nucleotide)
- Plasmid for Diabetic Neuropathy
Metabolic/Other
- H2 plus Ibuprofen combo
- Neuropeptide for insomnia
The basis of our conclusions comes from two core equities... A history of accurate forecasts
- We're held accountable for our research based forecasts
- We validate our estimates after launch
- We consistently observe a high degree of accuracy in complex categories
Even when conducting concept screening,we think like forecasters and ask, "how will this play out in the market."
Two thirds of forecasts within +10%
Products can fall into multiple categories:
Mass Potential:
Traditional research usually finds these ideas with high overall scores. (You and your competitors usually discover these ideas.)
Appeal across consumer segments
Less risky
Often in familiar space
Challenge is to gain distribution and execute the message to build awareness in market
Breakthrough:
Slower to take off, but huge opportunities (many imitators / fast followers)
Often in rapidly changing categories
Often game changers (challenge existing competitors / business models)
Can require significant investment to become a market leader
Examples: Mobile payments
Niche/Targeted:
Actionable target segment(s) are highly enthusiastic about the offer (despite poor overall interest)
"Niche/Targeted" doesn't mean small
Wild successes that appeal to a single segment at launch
Examples: Green Credit Card, E-Wallet
Fourth profile: Appealing products with Economic issues
- Overpriced/Underpriced ideas where you are leaving money on the table and there is are opportunities
- Other marketing errors