Reuters/Ipsos Poll (October 19): Core Political

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Washington, DC- Three weeks out from election day the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Clinton’s bump from the last week or so receding just in time for the third debate. The effects of Trump’s “hot mike” incident and second debate performance appear to have subsided somewhat, and the election has reverted back to pre-debate levels

General Election Trends

  • Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters, though her lead has shrunk to 4 percentage points, with Clinton at 43% to Trump at 39%.
    • Nearly a fifth of likely voters continue to support alternatives to the major two candidates with 18% saying they will vote third party (8%), would not vote (3%) or don’t know (7%).
    • Clinton maintains a similar lead amongst likely voters on the 4-way ballot with the same 4 percentage point margin, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 42%; Trump 38%; Johnson 6%; and Stein 2%).
  • Clinton’s favorability holds relatively steady with 49% amongst registered voters, while Trump’s favorability score has also held steady at 42%.

Other Trends

  • The general economy and terrorism continue to be tied for the most serious problem facing the United States, with one-fifth of Americans citing each as a top threat.
  • President Barack Obama’s approval rating among all Americans also remains relatively stead over the course of the last week and stands at 51%.
  • In our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats saw their lead shrink slightly with 43% of likely voters saying that they’ll vote for a Democratic candidate vs 39% saying that they’ll vote for a Republican candidate.

Topline results are available for download on the right side of the page.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters October 13-17, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 1,750 Americans, including 723 Democrats, 643 Republicans, 210 Independents, 1,501 registered voters and 1,190 likely voters ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all adults, 4.2 percentage points for Democrats, 4.4 percentage points for Republicans, 7.7 percentage points for Independents, 2.9 percentage points for registered voters and 3.2 percentage points for likely voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com

Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
312.526.4919
julia.clark@ipsos.com

Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
chris.jackson@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos- na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,785.3 million ($1,981 million) in 2015.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


Reuters/Ipsos Poll (October 19): Core Political

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Contact

Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.202.420.2025
chris.jackson@ipsos.com
Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.312.526.4919
julia.clark@ipsos.com