Vancouver, BC – With one year to go until the next provincial election, a new Ipsos poll shows the BC Liberals ahead of the NDP in decided voter support in BC. The poll also shows younger British Columbians (18-34 years) with the highest levels of support for the BC Liberals, the highest levels of provincial government approval and the highest levels of provincial right direction sentiment. The poll does not show whether this strength with millennials is due to the strong BC economy, spillover from Trudeau’s federal Liberals or some other factor.
The BC Liberals have the support of 42% of decided voters, which is a 6-point lead over the NDP at 36%. The BC Conservatives (11%) and the Green Party (10%) both have the support of about one-in-ten decided voters. These results exclude the 28% of British Columbians who are undecided or who express no party preference.
BC Liberal support has barely shifted (up 1% from 41%) from an Ipsos poll taken one year ago in May 2015. The BC Liberal lead is a result of NDP support dropping 8 points (from 44% to 36%) in the past year. The leaderless BC Conservatives are up 4 points (from 7% to 11%) and the Greens are up 2 points (from 8% to 10%).
The BC Liberal lead is driven mostly by millennials. The BC Liberals lead the NDP by 17 points among the 18-34-year-old segment (46% BC Libs vs. 29% NDP). Things are essentially tied among both the 35-54-year-old segment (39% BC Libs vs. 36% NDP) or the 55+ year segment (41% BC Liberals vs. 40% NDP).
By region, the BC Liberals have a large lead in the Interior/North (44% BC Libs vs. 28% NDP) and a smaller lead in Metro Vancouver (44% BC Libs to 39% NDP). The NDP leads among decided voters on Vancouver Island (39% NDP to 32% BC Libs).
Mood of Province
The overall mood in the province continues to be more right direction than wrong direction. Currently, 48% (up 3 points from last year) of residents say that things in British Columbia today are heading in the right direction, while 34% (down 3 points from last year) say things are on the wrong track. Nearly two-in-ten (18%) are undecided.
Right direction sentiment is higher among millennials (56% among 18-34 years vs. 44% among 35-54 years, 46% among 55+ years), men (53% vs. 43% among women) and Metro Vancouver residents (53% vs. 46% in Interior/North, 38% on Vancouver Island).
British Columbians are split right down the middle in their assessments of the job the BC provincial government is doing today. Currently, 44% (up 1 point from last year) of residents approve of the job the current provincial government is doing today (6% strongly, 38% somewhat). Government disapproval is at 45% (22% strongly, 23% somewhat), which is down 3 points from last year.
Government approval is higher among millennials (52% among 18-34 years vs. 39% among 35-54 years, 44% among 55+ years) and men (49% vs. 40% among women).
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll of 803 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos online panel between May 4 and 9, 2016. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.9 percentage points had all British Columbia adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
About Ipsos in Canada
Ipsos is Canada’s market intelligence leader, the country’s leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos’ marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos in Canada is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit ipsos.ca.
Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999. www.ipsos.com