Respondents Across Twelve European Countries Surveyed Say In Upcoming European Union Elections, 42% Will Vote For Party With Best Policies For Their Country, 13% With Best Policies For Europe, 11% To Make A Protest Vote About Way Their Country Is Being Run

79% wanting to stay in the EU but 30% of them want the EU’s powers to be reduced

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Global – A new poll of respondents in twelve European countries indicates that for the upcoming European union elections, 42% will vote for the party with the best policies for their country followed by 13% who will vote for the party that has the best policies for Europe and a further one in 10 (11%) intend to lodge a protest vote about the way their country is being run.

The survey was released by Ipsos today and involved 9,333 respondents across Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden.

What is driving the vote on the EU elections…

A plurality (42%) of respondents in the 12 countries indicates that they will “vote for the party with the best policies for their country”. This sentiment is led by those in Hungary (55%), followed by those in Great Britain (49%), Croatia (44%), Belgium (43%), Netherlands (43%), Spain (42%), Sweden (42%), France (40%), Germany (40%), Italy (37%), Czech Republic (35%) and Poland (35%).

One in eight (13%) indicate that they “will vote for the party with the best policies for Europe”. This sentiment is led by respondents from Germany (22%), followed by those from Sweden (20%), Netherlands (16%), France (16%), Belgium (15%), Italy (14%), Poland (12%), Great Britain (11%), Spain (11%), Czech Republic (6%), Croatia (5%), and Hungary (5%).

One in 10 (11%) indicate they will “vote for a party to make a protest about the way my country is being run”. Those most likely to do so are from Poland (17%) followed by Hungary (15%), France (13%), Belgium (13%), Germany (11%), Great Britain/Italy/Spain each at 10%, Croatia (9%), Czech Republic and Netherlands both at 7%, and Sweden at 6%.

One in five (18%) indicate that they don’t intend to vote – which is most likely to be the case in the Czech Republic (37%), followed by those in Croatia (27%), Spain (23%), Poland (20%) and Italy (20%), Hungary (15%), Sweden (14%), France (13%) and Great Britain (13%), Germany (11%), Netherlands (10%) and Belgium (9%).

Lastly, another one in six (17%) don’t know if they will vote led by those in the Netherlands (23%), followed by those in Belgium (21%), Italy (20%), Sweden (18%) and France (18%), Germany (16%) and Poland (16%), Czech Republic (15%) and Croatia (15%), Spain (13%) and Hungary (11%).

Should we stay or should we go? Overall, a majority (79%) in 12 countries say the long-term policy for their country should be to stay in the European Union, but…

In updated sounding to this past month, a majority (-2 from the nine countries total results) of respondents across the 12 countries believe that their countries long-term policy should to stay in the European Union. One in 6 (17%) believe that the long-term policy of their country should be to work for the formation of a single European government, 19% (no change from the nine country totals) believe they should stay in the European Union and try to increase the European Union’s powers and 13% (+2) believe things should be left as they are. But three and 10 (30%) ,-2 compared to last month nine country totals, believe they should stay and try to reduce the European Union’s powers. Based on these combined sentiments, respondents from Sweden (82% +11) are most likely to want their countries long-term policy to be to stay in the European Union followed by those from Poland (89%), Great Britain (71%), Czech Republic (74%), Germany (85%), Netherlands (81%), Spain (85% -6), France (78%), Belgium (85%), Croatia (59%), Hungry (85%) and Italy (75%). So, the majority (30%) of respondents in the 12 countries indicate that they want to stay in the European Union but ask for a reduction of European Union’s power.

This contrasts to just 18% (no change from the nine country survey) to believe that their countries long-term policy should be to leave the European Union countered by 17% (-2) at the other end of the scale who believe that there country’s long-term policy should be to work for the formation of a single European government.

Three and 10 (30%) of all of those surveyed in the 12th countries indicated that they thought the long-term policy for their country should be to stay in the European Union and try to reduce the European Union’s powers. Those most likely to believe this are from the Czech Republic (45%) followed by Netherlands (40%), Great Britain (39%), Sweden (32%), Croatia (31%), Spain (29%) and Poland (29%), Italy (27%), Germany (26%), France (20%), Hungary (19%) and Belgium (15%).

One in five (19%) believe that the long-term policy for their country should be to stay in the European Union and try to increase the European union’s powers. This is most likely to be the case for those in France/Poland/Hungary (27%), followed by those in Belgium (25%) and Germany (25%), Spain (23%), Italy (18%), Sweden (16%) and Croatia (60%), Netherlands (11%) and Czech Republic (11%), and Great Britain (7%).

One in eight (13%) believe that the long-term policy of their country should be to leave things as they are with respect to the European Union. This is led by those in Sweden (30%) followed by those in Great Britain (22%), Germany (16%), Belgium (15%) and Netherlands (15%), Poland (13%), Czech Republic (12%), France (9%), Spain (8%), Croatia (7%) and Hungary (6%).

One in 6 (17%) believe that the long-term policy of their country should be to work for the formation of a single European government. This is led by those from Hungary (33%) followed by those from Belgium (30%), Italy (26%), Spain (25%), France (22%), Poland (20%), Germany (18%), Netherlands (15%), Czech Republic (6%) and Sweden (6%), Croatia (5%) and Great Britain (3%).

One in six (18%) indicate that the long-term policy of the country should be to leave the European Union. Those most likely to advance this view are from Great Britain (28%) followed by those from Czech Republic (26%), Italy (25%), France (22%), Netherlands (19%), Sweden (17%), Belgium (15%) and Spain (15%), Hungary (14%) and Germany (14%), Croatia (13%) and Poland (11%).

Should Ukraine and Turkey Become Members of the European Union in the Future?

Respondents in the 12 countries were asked whether they believed that the Ukraine and Turkey should become part of the European Union in the future.

For the Ukraine, an average of 33% of respondents across all 12 countries indicated they are in favor of Ukraine becoming part of the European Union in the future compared with 38% against and another 28% who say they “don’t know”. Those most likely to be in favor of Ukraine joining the EU in the future are from Croatia (68%) followed by Poland (59%), Spain (39%), Sweden (35%), Hungary (34%), Italy (33%), Czech Republic (27%), Germany (26%), Great Britain (23%), France (19%) and Belgium (20%). Those against the notion are led by those in the Netherlands (61%) followed by those from Germany (15%), France (51%), Belgium (50%), Czech Republic (41%) and Italy (41%), Great Britain (37%), Sweden (32%), Hungary (28%) and Poland (21%).

For Turkey, an average of 27% of respondents across all 12 countries indicated they are in favor of Turkey becoming part of the European Union in the future compared with 47% against and another 27% who say they “don’t know”. Those most likely to be in favor of Turkey joining the EU in the future are from Croatia (56%) followed by those from Poland (42%), Hungary (35%), Spain (34%), Sweden (27%), Italy (26%), Czech Republic (22%), Netherlands (21%) and Great Britain (21%), Belgium (15%), Germany (14%) and France (9%). Those against the notion are most likely to be from Germany (71%) followed by those from France (68%), Belgium (63%), Netherlands (61%), Italy (50%), Czech Republic (44%) and Sweden (44%), Great Britain (41%), Spain (33%), Croatia (32%), Hungary (28%) and Poland (26%).

Majority (80%) believe it’s more important than ever for countries in Europe to work together given the rise of countries such as Brazil, India and China…

But while there may not be much enthusiasm for bringing the Ukraine and Turkey into the EU fold, it’s clear that outside country forces bring greater agreement that it’s more important than ever for countries in Europe to work together given the rise of countries such as Brazil, India and China. Three quarters (80%) of respondents throughout the 12 countries agree with this view led by those in Sweden (88%) and Spain (88%) followed by those in Poland (84%), Germany (83%), Hungary (82%) and Italy (82%), France (80%), Great Britain (78%), Belgium (77%), Czech Republic (77%), Netherlands (74%) and Croatia (71%).

A Split in the Belief There Would Have Been More Wars in Europe if the European Union Had Not Existed…

There’s a clear split an opinion among residents of the 12 countries as to whether or not there would’ve been more wars in Europe if the European Union had not existed.

Half (47%) agree that there would have been more wars if the EU had not existed led by Poland (61%) followed by Sweden (58%), Great Britain (52%), Belgium (50%) and Spain (50%, Hungary/France/Germany/Italy/each at 48%, Netherlands (42%), Croatia (36%) and Czech Republic (27%). Alternatively, 51% disagree that there would be more wars in Europe if the EU had not existed led by Czech Republic (73% followed by Netherlands (58%), Hungary/France/Germany/Italy each at 52%, Spain (50%) and Belgium (50%), Croatia (49%), Great Britain (48%), Sweden (42%) and Poland (39%).

Country Influence…

Respondents across the 12 countries were asked to indicate which country they believe has the most influence in Europe. When provided with an entire country list there was only one clear-cut, hands down choice: two thirds (66%) of all respondents indicated that Germany has the most influence in Europe; no other country received more than 10% with the closest being the United Kingdom at 7%.

As for the country they believe has the least influence in Europe Malta was chosen by 10% of respondents followed by Romania (7%), Greece (8%), Croatia (5%), Estonia (3%) and Bulgaria (3%).

Respondents were also asked to indicate which country, out of all of those in Europe, have the strongest economy and there was no question that Germany (60%) was the choice of the vast majority with only the United Kingdom (7%), Sweden (4%) and Luxembourg (3%) receiving any choice recognition.

As for the country with the “weakest economy” out of all of the countries of Europe, four in 10 (38%) respondents from the 12 countries chose Greece – with Romania at 10%, Bulgaria and Lithuania at 4%, along with Croatia/Cyprus/Latvia at 3% and Hungary at 2%.

Allies: To be or Not to be…

Respondents from the 12 countries were provided with a list of all of the countries in Europe – they were asked to choose their own country’s most reliable ally and their countries least reliable ally.

As for the most reliable ally, the collective opinion based on the average of the 12 countries was that Germany (25%) ranked at the top followed by France (9%) and the United Kingdom (4%). Overall, 36% of respondents could not name their countries most reliable ally.

As for the least reliable ally, the collective average of the 12 countries singled out no country in particular but noted mentions for Germany (9%), Greece (8%), Romania (8%), United Kingdom (7%), and France (6%). Overall, 40% of respondents could not name their countries least reliable ally.

Most reliable country choices:

  • Belgium: France (21%), Netherlands (19%), Germany (17%), Luxembourg (11%)
  • Poland: Germany (23%), United Kingdom (12%), France (5%), Hungary (5%), Czech Republic (4%)
  • Sweden: Denmark (19%), Finland (17%), Germany (17%), United Kingdom (5%)
  • Hungary: Germany (25%), Poland (15%), Austria (8%)
  • France: Germany (55%)
  • Germany: France (42%), United Kingdom (6%), Austria (5%)
  • Great Britain: Germany (19%) Ireland (8%), Netherlands (4%)
  • Italy: Germany (18%), Spain (12%), France (11%), United Kingdom (6%)
  • Spain: Portugal (22%), France (13%), Germany (11%), Italy (6%), United Kingdom (4%)
  • Czech Republic: Germany (19%) Slovakia (30%)
  • Croatia: Germany (41%), Austria (7%), United Kingdom (4%)
  • Netherlands: Germany (52%), Belgium (9%), United Kingdom (4%)

Least reliable country choices:

  • Belgium: Greece (8%), Romania (8%), United Kingdom (8%)
  • Poland: Germany (14%), United Kingdom (12%)
  • Sweden: Romania (11%), Greece (8%)
  • Hungary: Romania (20%), Slovakia (18%)
  • France: United Kingdom (20%), Greece (10%), Romania (8%), United Kingdom (20%)
  • Germany: Greece (19%), United Kingdom (11%), Romania (8%)
  • Great Britain: France (21%), Germany (6%)
  • Italy: Germany (27%), Romania/France/Greece (7%)
  • Spain: Germany (37%), France (9%), United Kingdom (7%)
  • Czech Republic: Greece (13%), Romania (8%), Poland (6%)
  • Croatia: Slovenia (16%), United Kingdom (15%), France (7%)
  • Netherlands: Greece (15%), Romania (9%), Bulgaria (8%), Italy (6%), France (5%)

Between March 4th and March 18th, 2014, Ipsos surveyed 9,333 respondents in 12 European countries for their attitudes towards the European Union. The countries surveyed included Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden. The data was collected via Ipsos online panels with the exception of Croatia where data was collected via CATI on March 11th and March 17th, and then weighted to represent the general population in the country surveyed.

Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis with the exception of Belgium, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500. The precision of Ipsos online polls and CATI are calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on credibility interval measurement please visit http://aapor.org/Understanding_a_credibility_interval_and_how_it_differs_from_the_margin_of_sampling_error_in_a_publi.htm

For more information on this news release please contact:

Nando Pagnoncelli
CEO
Ipsos Italy
+390236105451
nando.pagnoncelli@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


Respondents Across Twelve European Countries Surveyed Say In Upcoming European Union Elections, 42% Will Vote For Party With Best Policies For Their Country, 13% With Best Policies For Europe, 11% To Make A Protest Vote About Way Their Country Is Being Run

Contact

Nando Pagnoncelli
CEO
Ipsos Italy
+390236105451
nando.pagnoncelli@ipsos.com