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BC NDP Retain Lead in Ever Tightening Race

BC Liberals (37%, up 2) Cut NDP (43%, down 2) Lead to 6 Points

Green Party (10%) and BC Conservatives (7%) Both Unchanged

Christy Clark (34%, up 3) Now Leads Adrian Dix (31%, down 3) as Best Premier

Friday, May 10, 2013

Vancouver, BC – An Ipsos Reid poll taken Wednesday and Thursday of this week shows Christy Clark and the BC Liberals continuing to show positive movement as the campaign nears an end. On decided vote, the BC Liberals still trail the NDP by 6 points, but have cut the gap from 19 points at the start of the campaign and from 10 points in our previous poll released one week ago. On leadership, Christy Clark now leads Adrian Dix by 3 points as best premier, an improvement from a 13 point deficit for Clark at the start of the campaign and a 3 point deficit for Clark in our previous poll.

Ballot

The NDP currently has the support of 43% of decided voters in BC. This is a 6 point lead over the BC Liberals who are at 37% support. The Green Party is at 10%, followed by the BC Conservatives at 7% and all other parties/candidates at 3%.

The NDP (43%) are down 2 points from 45% one week ago and down 5 points from 48% at the start of the campaign. The BC Liberals (37%) are up 2 points from 35% one week ago and are up 8 points from 29% at the start of the campaign. Both the Green Party (10%) and BC Conservatives (7%) are unchanged from one week ago.

These results exclude the 10% (down 3 points) of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

  • Region: The NDP has an 8 point lead (unchanged) in Metro Vancouver (46% NDP vs. 38% BC Lib) and a 12 point lead (down from 20) on Vancouver Island (44% NDP vs. 32% BC Lib). The two main parties are tied (vs. 9 point NDP lead) in the Southern Interior/North (39% NDP vs. 39% BC Lib).
  • Gender: The NDP has a 15 point lead (down from 20) among women (48% NDP vs. 33% BC Lib), while the BC Liberals lead by 4 points (vs. a tie) among men (42% BC Lib vs. 38% NDP).

Vote Firmness

Only 11% (down 4 points from previous poll) of decided voters say there is a good chance that they will change their mind and vote for some other party’s candidate in this election. This includes 9% of BC Liberal voters and 7% of NDP voters. The numbers are higher for other parties, but the sample sizes are small.

Best Premier

Christy Clark has now passed Adrian Dix as the leader that voters think would make the best premier of British Columbia, with a caveat that the result is a statistical tie. Currently, 34% select Christy Clark as best premier, up 3 points from 31% last week and up 11 points from 23% at the start of the campaign. Adrian Dix is selected by 31% of voters, down 3 points from 34% last week and down 5 points from 36% at the start of the campaign.

John Cummins is selected by 8% (up 1 point) and Jane Sterk by 7% (down 1). Twenty percent (unchanged) of voters are undecided on this question.

  • Gender: Christy Clark has a 10 point lead (up from 3 points) among men (39% Clark vs. 29% Dix), while Adrian Dix has a 6 point lead (down from 9 points) among women (34% Dix vs. 28% Clark).

Methodology

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 800 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between May 8 and 9, 2013. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 4.0 percentage points had all British Columbia adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778.373.5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com
@kylebraid

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.




BC NDP Retain Lead in Ever Tightening Race



Contact

KyleBraid Kyle Braid
Vice President / Vice-Président
Ipsos Public Affairs
Work+1.778.373.5130