Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 48% - Romney 46%
Monday, November 05, 2012
Washington, D.C. - Reuters/Ipsos final national poll has Obama in the lead by two points: 48% vs. 46%.
We have also re-based the ‘already voted’ question on Likely Voters, and it shows that 41% of Likely Voters have already cast a vote.
The poll today also includes some questions on the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. Please note that we began our swing state polling Monday, and so the sample size has increased significantly. However, much of this increase is in four swing states (VA, FL, OH, CO). We have duly weighted this down in the overall national numbers to ensure the booster sample does not interfere with national figures.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Nov. 1.-5, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 5,643 American
registered voters and 4,725 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. On October 29th, Ipsos began boosting sample in
four swing states, which accounts for the increase in our overall sample size. The data collected in these states are included in our national
sample, although weighted appropriately to reflect the population of each state relative to the national population. The precision of the
Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0
percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.4 for Likely Voters. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted,
as of 10.15.12. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not
applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error
and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one
per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
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