Ipsos/Reuters State-Level Election Tracking: 11.04.12

Sunday, November 04, 2012

Washington, D.C. - Today we have included information about which candidate is preferred in key policy areas within each state. Some of the main findings are summarized below, but there is a great deal more information in the toplines attached:


  • Presidential Race: Obama 47% vs. Romney 46% among Likely Voters (yesterday was 48-45)
  • Senate Race: Kaine 48% vs. Allen 46% among Likely Voters


  • Presidential Race: Obama 48% vs. Romney 44% among Likely Voters (yesterday was 46-45)
  • Senate Race: Brown 50% vs. Mandel 42% among Likely Voters


  • Presidential Race: Obama 46% vs. Romney 46% among Likely Voters (yesterday was 47-47)
  • Senate Race: Nelson 54% vs. Mack 39% among Likely Voters


  • Presidential Race: Obama 48% vs. Romney 48% among Likely Voters (yesterday was 45-47)

Candidate preference on key policy areas:

  • Of the four swing states, Obama is ahead on the economy only in Ohio (42%-38%); Romney holds a lead in Colorado (R: 42%, O: 39%) and Florida (R:44%, O: 37%) while they are tied in Virginia (42% each)
  • On jobs, there is a similar story with Obama holding a 4 point lead over Romney in Ohio while Romney has a 7 point in Florida
  • On social issues such as gay marriage and women’s rights, Obama holds a large lead in all four states
  • Obama also leads on healthcare in all four states, but by a smaller margin:
    • 6 points in Virginia
    • 8 points in Florida
    • 4 points in Ohio
    • 11 points in Colorado

This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. Please note that we began our swing state polling Monday, and so the sample size has increased significantly. However, much of this increase is in four swing states (VA, FL, OH, CO). We have duly weighted this down in the overall national numbers to ensure the booster sample does not interfere with national figures.

These are findings from Ipsos polling conducted for Thomson Reuters from Nov. 2-4, 2012. State-specific sample details are below. For all states, the data are weighted to each state’s current population voter data by gender, age, education, ethnicity, and a political values scale. Ipsos’ Likely Voter model (applied to Voting Intention questions only) uses a seven-item summated index, including questions on voter registration, past voting behavior, likelihood of voting in the upcoming election, and interest in following news about the campaign. This index is then transformed by logistic regression into estimated probabilities of voting.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Clifford Young
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.

Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Ipsos/Reuters State-Level Election Tracking: 11.04.12

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Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs