Toronto, ON – Although Ipsos/Reuters tracking has the current presidential race within 1 point as of November 1st, nine in ten (90%) Canadians believe Barack Obama will retain his position in the Oval Office on November 6th, according to a new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. Only one in ten (10%) Canadians believe Republican challenger Mitt Romney will unseat the President. Quebecers (94%), Ontarians (91%), and British Columbians (90%) are most likely to believe that the Presidency will not change hands, while residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15%), Alberta (14%), and Atlantic Canada (14%) are most likely to believe Mitt Romney will be victorious.
If given the ability to vote in the American election, Canadians would overwhelmingly support the President. Nine in ten (86%) Canadians would choose to vote for Barack Obama, while slightly more than one in ten (14%) would cast a ballot for Mitt Romney. Although a majority of Canadians in all regions would choose to support the President, respondents from Quebec (91%) and Ontario (86%) would be most likely to cast a vote for Barack Obama, while those in Alberta (22%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (17%), British Columbia (17%), and Atlantic Canada (15%) would be more likely than the national average to vote for Mitt Romney.
A vast majority of Canadians also believe that the re-election of Barack Obama would be more beneficial for U.S.-Canada relations than what they would be with Mitt Romney as President. Eight in ten (84%) Canadians think the re-election of President Barack Obama would be better for Canada, compared to two in ten (16%) think it would be better for Canada if Mitt Romney were to be elected. Quebecers (91%) and Atlantic Canadians (84%) are most likely to believe Barack Obama would be better for Canada, while Western Canadians (Alberta – 28%, Saskatchewan and Manitoba – 20%, and British Columbia -18%) and Ontarians (17%) are more likely than the national average to believe the election of Mitt Romney would be better for Canada.
These numbers are nearly identical when it comes to which presidential candidate would be a better partner with the Canadian government. 82% of Canadians say the re-election of the President would result in a better relationship with the Canadian government. Just two in ten (18%) believe that a Mitt Romney presidency would result in a better relations with the Canadian government. Those most likely to believe that a second term for President Obama would result in better relations with the Canadian government hail from Quebec (87%) and Ontario (82%), while belief that better relations would come via Mitt Romney in the White House is most seen in Alberta (26%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (22%), Atlantic Canada (22%), and British Columbia (18%).
When it comes to which presidential candidate would make the best world leader, the incumbency of President Obama as a visible world figure seems to shine when it comes to the opinions of Canadians. Nine in ten (87%) Canadians say that Barack Obama would be a better world leader, while only one in ten (13%) believe Mitt Romney would make a better world leader than the President. Quebecers (92%, +5 pts.) are more likely than the national average to believe this, while residents of Alberta (22%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (17%), and British Columbia (15%) are more likely than the national average to believe Mitt Romney would make the better world leader. Ontarians’ perspectives on who would make the better world leader are in line with the national average.
Undoubtedly, the predominant focus on the campaign trail and in the televised debates was on economic and foreign policy, and on these two issues Canadians believe President Barack Obama is vastly superior to his Republican challenger.
Eight in ten (83%) Canadians think Barack Obama has a better economic policy, while two in ten (17%) say that the economic policies proposed by Mitt Romney are superior. Quebecers (88%), Ontarians (84%), and Atlantic Canadians (84%) more likely than the national average to believe that the President has better economic policies, while Western Canadians (Alberta – 29%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba – 22%, and Manitoba – 19%) are most likely to say that Mitt Romney offers better solutions for the economy.
When it comes to foreign policy, slightly more Canadians prefer Barack Obama over Mitt Romney than those who prefer the President on the economy portfolio. Nine in ten (85%) believe Barack Obama has a better foreign policy, compared to two in ten (15%) who prefer the foreign policy position offered by Mitt Romney. Those most likely to prefer the foreign policy positions of the President reside in Quebec (90%), Atlantic Canada (87%), British Columbia (87%), and Ontario (86%). Support for Mitt Romney’s foreign policy position is most seen in residents of Alberta (23%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (20%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between October 30th to November 2nd, 2012, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,017 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is determined by using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points of the Canadian population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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