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Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 46%

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Washington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos Daily National Poll shows that - for the third day in a row - there has been no change in the headline numbers, with 47% of likely voters saying they will vote for Obama and 46% for Romney.

With around a quarter (26%) of registered voters saying they have already voted, Obama leads Romney by 52%-43% of those who have already cast a vote.

While much has been made of the effect of Hurricane Sandy being positive for the President, his rating on being seen as “Presidential” is unchanged compared to before the storm [comparisons made to data published on 10.25.12] with 46% of registered voters saying Obama is more “Presidential” and 39% saying Romney. Ratings of “bipartisanship” are also unchanged on 34%-29%.

Obama has increased his lead over Romney in terms of being seen as having the right values (44%-38%) and protecting American jobs (43%-38%)

This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. Please note that we began our swing state polling Monday, and so the sample size has increased significantly. However, much of this increase is in four swing states (VA, FL, OH, CO). We have duly weighted this down in the overall national numbers to ensure the booster sample does not interfere with national figures.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 5,575 American registered voters and 4,556 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. On October 29th, Ipsos began boosting sample in four swing states, which accounts for the increase in our overall sample size. The data collected in these states are included in our national sample, although weighted appropriately to reflect the population of each state relative to the national population. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.4 for Likely Voters. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10.15.12. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Clifford Young
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.

Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 46%

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CliffordYoung Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs

JuliaClark Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs