Ipsos/Reuters State-Level Election Tracking: 10.31.12
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Washington, D.C. - Today is the first day of the Reuters/Ipsos daily state polling: we will be carrying out a rolling poll in these four states from today through Election Day. Interviewing for today’s poll began on Monday the 29th.
Key findings include:
- Presidential Race: Obama 48% vs. Romney 46% among Likely Voters
- Senate Race: Kaine 47% vs. Allen 45% among Likely Voters
- Presidential Race: Obama 48% vs. Romney 45% among Likely Voters
- Senate Race: Brown 49% vs. Mandel 41% among Likely Voters
- Presidential Race: Obama 47% vs. Romney 47% among Likely Voters
- Senate Race: Nelson 52% vs. Mack 42% among Likely Voters
- Presidential Race: Obama 45% vs. Romney 46% among Likely Voters
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.
These are findings from Ipsos polling conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 29-31, 2012. State-specific sample details are below. For all
states, the data are weighted to each state’s current population voter data by gender, age, education, ethnicity, and a political values scale.
Ipsos’ Likely Voter model (applied to Voting Intention questions only) uses a seven-item summated index, including questions on voter
registration, past voting behavior, likelihood of voting in the upcoming election, and interest in following news about the campaign. This index
is then transformed by logistic regression into estimated probabilities of voting.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility
interval. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement
error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures
do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.
Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.
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