Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 44%
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Wasington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos Daily Tracking poll is unchanged from yesterday, with 47% of likely voters saying they plan to vote for Obama vs. 44% for Romney.
Other findings include updated numbers from our post-debate metrics:
- One in ten say that they have already voted (53% voted for Obama vs. 44% for Romney - although we know from the last two elections that Democrats have tended to vote early), and an additional 28% intend to vote in advance of Election Day.
- 15% of voters who plan to vote for either candidate say that they may change their mind before Election Day.
- When it comes to the debate, nearly half of Registered Voters (48%) believe that Obama won, compared to 34% who think Romney did the better.
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 14-18, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,809 American
registered voters and 1,356 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Likely voter model adjusted to include all
respondents who have voted, as of 10/15/12. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this
case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.0 for Likely Voters. For more
information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not
applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error
and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per
cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.
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