Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 44% - Romney 45%
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Washington, D.C. - Today’s data gives a one-point lead to Mitt Romney: Obama is on 44% to Romney’s 45%. This is a one-point drop for Obama since yesterday.
The topline also includes questions on how each candidate is perceived on various policy areas. Compared to our ‘pre-debate’ numbers when this question was last published (data collected between Sept 29 and Oct 3rd, and published on Oct 4th), Romney has gained significant ground:
- Healthcare: Romney has gained 6 points (31% to 37%), and Obama has dropped 6 points (44% to 38%)
- The federal government deficit: Romney has gained 6 points (33% to 39%), and Obama has dropped 6 points (33% to 27%)
- Medicare: Romney has gained 5 points (29% to 34%), and Obama has dropped 4 points (42% to 38%)
- Jobs and unemployment: Romney has gained 5 points (34% to 39%), and Obama has dropped 4 points (41% to 37%)
- The US economy: Romney has gained 4 points (35% to 39%), and Obama has dropped 3 points (40% to 37%)
- Social security: Romney has gained 4 points (28% to 32%), and Obama has dropped 4 points (41% to 37%)
- Taxes: Romney has gained 4 points (31% to 35%), and Obama has dropped 7 points (44% to 37%)
- Obama still outperforms Romney on Gay marriage (Obama 41% vs. Romney 22%), the War on terror (35% vs. 29%), Social Security (37% vs. 32%), and Medicare (38% vs. 34%)
- Romney is leading on the federal government deficit (Obama 27% vs. Romney 39%)
- The candidates are nearly even (within two points of each other) on:
- Healthcare (Obama 38% vs. Romney 37%)
- The US economy (Obama 37% vs. Romney 39%)
- Immigration (Obama 30% vs. Romney 31%)
- Taxes (Obama 37% vs. Romney 35%)
- Jobs and employment (Obama 37% vs. Romney 39%)
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 6-10, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,199 American
registered voters and 1,027 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is
measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for Registered
Voters and 3.5 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not
applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error
and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per
cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
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