Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%

Sunday, October 07, 2012

Washington, D.C. - Today’s voting intention numbers are unchanged from yesterday: Obama on 47% and Romney on 45%. The debate seems to have narrowed the race, but Romney has a bit further to go to close the gap.

More data from today’s topline:

  • 8% indicate they have already voted - the figure is lowest among Independents (6%) and highest among Democrats (9%). The base size is too small for us to break this down by how these people voted, but as soon as we have a sizeable enough base size, we will begin including this data as well.
  • A further 30% say they play to vote early rather than on Election Day
  • Debate numbers are pretty much unchanged - opinions are fairly fixed at this point:
    • Just over half (54%) feel Romney did better, including a third (33%) of Democrats and half (49%) of Independents
    • Over a quarter (28%) say the debate made them more positive towards Romney
    • Almost half (46%) say that the debate has made them more likely to watch the next debate

This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 3-7, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,745 American registered voters and 1,490 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for Registered Voters and 2.9 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.463.3623
julia.clark@ipsos.com

Clifford Young
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.

Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.


Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%

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CliffordYoung Clifford Young
SVP & Managing Director,
US Public Sector

Ipsos Public Affairs
Work+1.202.420.2016

JuliaClark Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
Work+1.312.526.4919