Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%
Saturday, October 06, 2012
Washington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos data has Obama on 47% and Romney on 45%, a two-point lead for Obama.
Our data today also includes the ‘candidate attribute’ questions (last published Sept 28th) to allow us to assess if/how the debates have affected perceptions of each candidate. There isn’t as much movement in these numbers as we might expect given the narrowing in the voting intention numbers; this suggests that while the debate was effective in energizing the Republican base and giving Romney a boost, it hasn’t fundamentally shifted perceptions of either candidate.
Some more detail on the attribute questions:
- Romney’s rating on ‘eloquent’ sees the most improvement, up four points from 23% to 27%. Obama’s rating on this metric is essentially unchanged (48%, compared to 49% on Sept 28th)
- Obama’s largest change is on ‘is a good person’, up four points from 43% to 47% (Romney’s score on this issue remains unchanged, on 31% compared to 32% on Sept 28th)
- Romney has seen a 3 point improvement on ‘presidential’ (34% to 37%), ‘tough enough for the job’ (35% to 38%), and ‘would be fun to meet in person’ (21% to 24%). However, Obama still retains a lead on all of these metrics.
- There have been no significant changes on any of the other attributes for either candidate
- We have added one new attribute to this battery of questions - bipartisanship. On this issue, Obama leads Romney 34% to 27%
We’ve left in the debate questions for post-debate analysis, but there has been little change to these numbers since yesterday
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 200-300 interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 2-6, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,770
American registered voters and 1,492 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the
Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus
2.7 percentage points for Registered Voters and 2.9 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error
are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited
to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero
but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
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