Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Washington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos data has Obama on 47% and Romney on 45%, a two-point lead for Obama.

Our data today also includes the ‘candidate attribute’ questions (last published Sept 28th) to allow us to assess if/how the debates have affected perceptions of each candidate. There isn’t as much movement in these numbers as we might expect given the narrowing in the voting intention numbers; this suggests that while the debate was effective in energizing the Republican base and giving Romney a boost, it hasn’t fundamentally shifted perceptions of either candidate.

Some more detail on the attribute questions:

  • Romney’s rating on ‘eloquent’ sees the most improvement, up four points from 23% to 27%. Obama’s rating on this metric is essentially unchanged (48%, compared to 49% on Sept 28th)
  • Obama’s largest change is on ‘is a good person’, up four points from 43% to 47% (Romney’s score on this issue remains unchanged, on 31% compared to 32% on Sept 28th)
  • Romney has seen a 3 point improvement on ‘presidential’ (34% to 37%), ‘tough enough for the job’ (35% to 38%), and ‘would be fun to meet in person’ (21% to 24%). However, Obama still retains a lead on all of these metrics.
  • There have been no significant changes on any of the other attributes for either candidate
  • We have added one new attribute to this battery of questions - bipartisanship. On this issue, Obama leads Romney 34% to 27%

We’ve left in the debate questions for post-debate analysis, but there has been little change to these numbers since yesterday

This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 200-300 interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 2-6, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,770 American registered voters and 1,492 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for Registered Voters and 2.9 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Clifford Young
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.

Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%

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Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs