BC NDP Stay Far Ahead as BC Liberals Take Back Some Support from BC Conservatives

NDP (49%, up 1) Lead BC Liberals (32%, up 3) and BC Conservatives (12%, down 4)
Dix (35%, up 4) Expands Lead Over Clark (22%, down 3) as Best Premier

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Vancouver, BC – A new Ipsos Reid poll shows Adrian Dix’s NDP maintaining a sizeable lead over its political rivals. The biggest shift since June is the BC Liberals taking back some support from the BC Conservatives.

Ballot

The NDP currently has the support of 49% of decided voters, compared to 32% for the BC Liberals. The BC Conservatives are in third place at 12% support, followed by the Green Party at 6%. These results exclude the 18% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

The biggest shift since June is a 4 point drop in support for the BC Conservatives (from 16% to 12%). The BC Liberals have picked up most of this support, moving from 29% to 32%. The NDP is up 1 point from June (from 48% to 49%) and the Green Party is unchanged (6% in both waves).

  • Region: The NDP continues to lead in all regions. They have a 20 point lead in Metro Vancouver (52% NDP vs. 32% BC Lib), a 33 point lead on Vancouver Island (57% NDP vs. 24% BC Lib) and a much smaller 4 point lead in the Southern Interior/North (40% NDP vs. 36% BC Lib).
  • Gender: The NDP has a 33 point lead among women (57% NDP vs. 24% BC Lib) and is basically tied with the BC Liberals among men (41% NDP vs. 40% BC Lib).

Leader Approval Ratings

The approval rating of Christy Clark as Premier is unchanged since June. Currently 33% (unchanged) of British Columbians say they approve of her performance (5% ‘strongly’). However, her disapproval rating has increased by 4 points (from 56% to 60%). Less than one-in-ten (7%, down 4 points) are undecided about her performance as Premier.

Adrian Dix’s approval numbers as NDP and Opposition leader are stable compared to June. Currently 51% (up 1 point) of British Columbians say they approve of his performance (16% ‘strongly’), while 34% (up 1 point) disapprove (18% ‘strongly’). Fifteen percent (down 2 points) are undecided.

British Columbians are becoming slightly more negative toward John Cummins as BC Conservative leader. His approval rating is down 2 points since February (from 25% to 23%), while his disapproval rating is up 5 points (from 35% to 40%). Nearly four-in-ten (37%, down 3 points) say they are undecided about John Cummins.

Six-in-ten (61%, up 1 point) residents say they have no impression of the job Jane Sterk is doing as Green Party leader. Currently 21% (up 2 points) say they approve of her performance while 18% (down 3 points) disapprove.

Best Premier

Adrian Dix has expanded his lead over Christy Clark as the leader who voters think would make the best Premier of British Columbia. Dix is selected by 35% (up 4 points) of British Columbians, placing him 13 points ahead of Christy Clark (22%, down 3 points). John Cummins is a distant third choice at 9% (down 2 points), followed by Jane Sterk at just 3% (up 1 points). Three-in-ten (31%, down 1 point) of British Columbians are unsure which of the four party leaders would make the best Premier.

  • Dix has a 22 point leadership advantage over Clark among women (38% Dix vs. 16% Clark) and a much smaller 4 points among men (32% Dix vs. 28% Clark).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 1,006 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between September 11 and September 18, 2012. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778.373.5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


BC NDP Stay Far Ahead as BC Liberals Take Back Some Support from BC Conservatives

Contact

KyleBraid Kyle Braid
Vice President / Vice-Président
Ipsos Public Affairs
Work+1.778.373.5130