Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 48% - Romney 43%
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Washington, D.C. - The Reuters / Ipsos daily tracking poll has Romney on 43% (no change from yesterday) and Obama up one point to 48%.
We also included an overnight video poll showing participants the recent video released of Mitt Romney at a private fundraising event:
- Before seeing the video in the poll, the majority of voters (84%) had seen, heard, or read about the issue – this is consistent across party lines
- Just over two in five (43%) say that they have a less favorable opinion of Romney after watching the video, and a quarter (26%) say they are more favorable; 30% says it makes no difference
- The poll explored some of the issues around the video in depth:
- We asked if people believe Romney was rightly making an important point about the size of Government, or if he was unfairly dismissing half of America as victims. Three in five voters (59%) felt he was dismissive, and two in five (41%) felt he was making an important point. This splits along party lines, with Independent voters more likely to believe he was dismissive (58% vs. 42%)
- The poll asked if voters personally identified more with Romney’s audience at the fundraiser, or with the ‘47%’ of Americans he refers to in the video. Two-thirds (67%) of voters identified with the 47%, and 33% with the fundraiser audience.
- When asked if Romney is being unfairly attacked for a private statement to supporters or if, as a candidate, his statements should be subject to scrutiny, a majority of voters (73%) felt that his comments are subject to scrutiny, including 48% of Republicans and 74% of Independents
- Two in five (41%) Americans say that they ‘personally fall into the 47% of Americans who do not end up owing anything in federal income taxes’ – and this is consistent across party lines.
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 200-300 interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous four days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. The charts attached help to show how the data is shifting over the past five days.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 15-19, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,772
American registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all respondents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
Data for the video questions was collected between approximately 3pm on September 18th through 10am on September 19th. The video questions were asked of 869 Registered Voters who were able to view the video. The credibility interval for these questions is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.
Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.
To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.
With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.
Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.