Washington, D.C. - On the third day of the Democratic Convention, Obama’s voting intention score remains flatlined on 44%, with Romney on 45%. There is, however, usually a ‘lag’ to convention bumps, so it is possible we will still see movement in the next few days.
The task for Obama with his speech tonight – and more importantly, his messaging strategy moving forward – will be to lay out his plans for job creation and economic recovery. This remains the #1 issue for Americans, and is a key area of attack for the Republicans. Also important will be convincing disaffected voters (those who voted Obama last time but may stay home this election) to come out and vote. This election will be a ‘game of inches’ and turnout will play a major factor in determining a winner.
The public are increasingly aware of the Convention, with two-thirds of Registered Voters now saying they’ve seen, heard, or read at least something about it. Among those who have seen/heard/read something, perceptions are improving, with 40% saying it is going well – an identical rating to the Republican convention.
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, and aggregate data from the previous five days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. The charts attached help to show how the data is shifting over the past five days.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 2-6, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,623
American registered voters was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference at the Presidential Voting Intention question (Q3 below).
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
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Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
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