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Ipsos/Reuters Poll: Conventions Day 11

Thursday, September 06, 2012

Washington, D.C. - On the third day of the Democratic Convention, Obama’s voting intention score remains flatlined on 44%, with Romney on 45%. There is, however, usually a ‘lag’ to convention bumps, so it is possible we will still see movement in the next few days.

The task for Obama with his speech tonight – and more importantly, his messaging strategy moving forward – will be to lay out his plans for job creation and economic recovery. This remains the #1 issue for Americans, and is a key area of attack for the Republicans. Also important will be convincing disaffected voters (those who voted Obama last time but may stay home this election) to come out and vote. This election will be a ‘game of inches’ and turnout will play a major factor in determining a winner.

The public are increasingly aware of the Convention, with two-thirds of Registered Voters now saying they’ve seen, heard, or read at least something about it. Among those who have seen/heard/read something, perceptions are improving, with 40% saying it is going well – an identical rating to the Republican convention.

This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, and aggregate data from the previous five days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. The charts attached help to show how the data is shifting over the past five days.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 2-6, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,623 American registered voters was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference at the Presidential Voting Intention question (Q3 below).

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Clifford Young
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.

Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos/Reuters Poll: Conventions Day 11

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CliffordYoung Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs

JuliaClark Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs