Ipsos/Reuters Poll: Republican National Convention Day 4
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Washington, D.C. - Day four of Ipsos’ convention tracking shows some positive movement for the Republicans. We have also put the ‘candidate attributes’ questions into charts to help with visualizing how the numbers have been shifting over the course of the Convention. As you will see, some of the personal attributes we’re tracking are going slowly up for Romney, and down for Obama. This is also reflected in Romney’s increasing share of the vote – Romney is now leading Obama by two points.
Some of the poll highlights include:
- Romney is now on 44%, compared to 42% for Obama among Likely Voters. This shows slow-but-steady improvement for Romney over the Convention period so far
- However, candidate favorability ratings have not changed at all over this time period: the Registered Voter electorate is split almost perfectly (50/50) on both the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates – much of this along party lines
- Romney’s scores on ‘likeability’ and ‘is a good person’ have been trending upwards over the course of the Convention
- While he still trails Obama by almost 20 points, Romney is now on 30% for ‘likeable’, up from 26% on Monday
- Romney is on 32% for ‘is a good person’, up from 29% on Monday (although Obama still leads by 10 points on 42%)
This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct about 300 interviews a day, and aggregate data from the previous four days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large. The charts attached help to see how the data is shifting over the past four days.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from August 26-30, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,481 American registered voters was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for all respondents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference at the Presidential Voting Intention question (Q3 below).
For more information on this news release please contact:
Ipsos Public Affairs
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
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