Despite Tumbles and Turmoil, Keeping Euro Gets Majority Support in Each of Greece, Germany France, Italy and Spain:

Average Majority (65%) of Decided Voters in a Referendum Would Keep Euro While Minority (34%) Would Vote To Leave It

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Toronto, ON — As fears reverberate through financial markets that Greece could leave the euro zone and throw the region—and the rest of the world—into economic turmoil, a new poll of citizens in some of the most crucial countries engaged in the debate, debacle and damage control—Greece, Germany France, Italy and Spain—indicates that, on average, a majority (60%) with a decided view would support a national referendum in their country to decide whether they should keep the Euro as their currency and if there was such a referendum, an average of six in ten (65%) of decided citizens would vote to keep the currency.

The poll was conducted by global research company Ipsos on behalf of and as a prelude to the Munk Debate which will occur Friday, May 25th in Toronto, Canada, as four major European voices appears in front of a 2,700 person audience to debate the motion: be it resolved, the European experiment has failed (see below for more details).

The Poll Details: The Average of the Countries Surveyed…

When first asked, if they would personally support holding a national referendum to decide whether their country should keep the Euro as its currency or should leave the Euro, an average of respondents of all five countries produces a majority (54%) of support for the proposition followed by one third (36%) opposed and one in ten (10%) who say they “don’t know”.

However, backing out the undecided, those with definitive views on the question of having a referendum reveals an average across the five countries of six in ten (60%) in support versus four in ten (40%) who oppose the idea.

Of those in the five countries surveyed a majority (58%) average say that if there was a referendum held today they would vote to keep the Euro versus three in ten (30%) who would vote to leave the Euro—and one in ten (9%) who say they “don’t know” how they’d vote and 3% who say they “would not vote at all”. Backing out the undecided and those who wouldn’t vote, an average of two thirds (65%) of decided voters would vote to keep the Euro while one third (34%) would vote to leave it.

Individually, the Countries Surveyed Show the Following:

  • Those in Germany are most likely to support having a referendum: six in ten (62%) of all respondents support a referendum on whether to keep the Euro or to leave it while one quarter (25%) are opposed to having a referendum and one in ten (13%) say they “don’t know”. Backing out the undecided, support climbs to seven in ten (71%) for a referendum versus three in ten (29%) who oppose having one. Asked how they’d vote in a referendum if it were to take place today, half (51%) said they’d vote to keep the Euro while 38% would vote to leave it, 8% said they “don’t know” and 3% “would not vote”. As such, backing out the undecided and those who wouldn’t vote, among decided voters 57% would vote for Germany to keep the Euro while 43% would have Germany leave the Euro.
  • A majority (55%) in Spain indicate they’d support holding a referendum to decide if their country should keep the Euro while one third (35%) oppose the idea and one in ten (10%) say they “don’t know”. Backing out the undecided, six in ten (61%) support a holding a referendum, while four in ten (39%) are opposed. Asked how they’d vote in a referendum if it were to take place today, 55% said they’d vote to keep the Euro while one third (32%) would vote to leave it—10% said they “don’t know” how they’d vote and 4% said they “would not vote at all”. Backing out the undecided and those who say they wouldn’t vote, almost two thirds (63%) of decided Spanish voters would vote to stick with the Euro while 37% would vote to leave it.
  • In Italy, half (52%) would support holding a referendum in their country to determine the future of the Euro versus just over one third (36%) who would oppose having one and 12% say they “don’t know”. Backing out the undecided, six in ten (60%) Italians support and 40% oppose having a referendum. Asked how they’d vote in a referendum if it were to take place today, half (50%) of Italians say they’d vote to keep the Euro as their country’s currency while four in ten (38%) would vote to leave it—8% say they “don’t know” how they’d vote and 4% say they wouldn’t vote. As such, backing out the undecided and those who say they wouldn’t vote, of decided Italian voters, six in ten (57%) would vote to stick with the Euro while 43% would vote to leave it.
  • In France, half (49%) support holding a referendum while four in ten (41%) oppose doing so and one in ten (10%) say they “don’t know”. Backing out the undecided, 55% support and 45% oppose holding a referendum. Asked how they’d vote in a referendum if it were to take place today, a majority (62%) would vote to support keeping the Euro while one quarter (24%) would vote to leave it—12% say they “don’t know” and 2% say they “would vote”. As such, backing out the undecided and those who say they wouldn’t vote, among decided French voters, seven in ten (72%) would vote to stick with the Euro while three in ten (28%) would vote to leave it behind.
  • In Greece, a majority (54%) would support holding a referendum versus four in ten (41%) who oppose the idea and 5% say they “don’t know”. Backing out the undecided, 56% support a referendum while 44% oppose it. Asked how they’d vote in a referendum if it were to take place today, seven in ten (70%) indicated they’d support keeping the Euro while two in ten (20%) would vote to leave the Euro— 6% said they “don’t know” and 4% say they “wouldn’t vote”. As such, backing out the undecided and those who say they wouldn’t vote, among decided Greek voters, a strong majority (78%) would vote to keep the Euro and only 22% would vote to leave it.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Global @dvisor poll conducted between on behalf of The Munk Debates. The survey instrument is conducted monthly in 24 countries via the Ipsos Online Panel system. These are the findings of an Ipsos survey conducted between May 15th to May 23rd, 2012. The countries polled were France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Greece. For the results of the survey presented a European sample of 4,969 adults aged 18-64 were interviewed: Spain n=1,004, France n=981, Germany n=981, Italy n=1,003, Greece n=1,000. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20 per country of what the results would have been had the entire population of the specifically aged adults in that country been polled.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
416.324.2002
john.wright@ipsos.com

Rudyard Griffiths
Co-Organiser
The Munk Debates
416.737.9626
rudyard@munkdebates.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.

About the Munk Debates

The survey was commissioned on behalf of the Munk Debates, the premiere international public debate series. On Friday, May 25th in Toronto, four major European voices will appear in front of 2,700 person audience to debate the motion: be it resolved, the European experiment has failed.

Arguing for the resolution will be Niall Ferguson, renowned economic historian, internationally-acclaimed author, and a prolific commentator on economics and politics. He will be joined by Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit and bestselling author. Speaking against the resolution, will be Lord Peter Mandelson. A Member of the House of Lord, Mandelson is the former E.U. Commissioner for Trade. Mandelson will be joined by Daniel Cohn-Bendit, co-president of the Greens/Free European Alliance Group in the European Parliament.

The debate is being broadcast live on the Internet starting at 11:00 PM GMT via the web address: www.munkdebates.com/live. A Twitter feed of the entire debate proceedings also will be available at @munkdebates. For more information on the debate visit www.munkdebates.com.


Despite Tumbles and Turmoil, 
Keeping Euro Gets Majority Support in Each of Greece, Germany France, Italy and Spain:

Contact

JohnWright John Wright
Senior Vice President / Premier Vice-Président
Global @dvisor
Work+1.416.324.2002