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NDP Expand Lead as BC Conservatives Take BC Liberal Support

NDP (44%, down 1) Lead BC Liberals (32%, down 6); BC Conservatives (16%, up 4 points) Moving Up
Christy Clark (31%, down 3) Still Leads Adrian Dix (25%, up 2 points) as Best Premier, But Gap is Shrinking

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Vancouver, BC – A new Ipsos Reid poll shows Adrian Dix’s NDP holding a 12 point lead over Christy Clark’s BC Liberals among British Columbia’s decided voters. The NDP have expanded their lead as John Cummins’ BC Conservatives have taken support from the BC Liberals. Christy Clark is still the number one choice as best Premier of BC, but her lead over Adrian Dix has narrowed.

Ballot

The NDP currently have the support of 44% of the province’s decided voters. This is a 12 point lead over the BC Liberals who are at 32% support. The BC Conservatives are in third place at 16% support, followed by the Green Party at 7%. These results exclude the 20% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

The NDP is largely unchanged (down 1 point from 45% to 44%) from an October 2011 Ipsos Reid poll. The BC Liberals have dropped 6 points (from 38% to 32%) with most of those losses attributable to the BC Conservatives, who are up 4 points (from 12% to 16%). The Green Party is effectively unchanged (up 1 point from 6% to 7%).

  • Region: The NDP now lead in all regions. They have a 5 point lead in Metro Vancouver (43% NDP vs. 38% BC Lib), a 29 point lead on Vancouver Island (50% NDP vs. 21% BC Lib) and an 11 point lead in the Southern Interior/North (42% NDP vs. 31% BC Lib).
  • Gender: A substantial gender gap exists for the BC Liberals and NDP. Among men, it’s basically a statistical tie with the Liberals up by 2 points (39% BC Lib vs. 37% NDP). Among women, the NDP have a substantial 26 point lead (51% NDP vs. 25% BC Lib).

Leader Approval Ratings

British Columbians continue to be split on the job that Christy Clark has been doing as Premier. Currently 47% (up 2 points) say they approve of her performance (8% ‘strongly’), while 47% (up 1 point) disapprove (25% ‘strongly’). Only 6% are undecided about her performance as Premier.

  • Clark has higher approval among Metro Vancouver residents (51% vs. 40% Vancouver Island, 43% Southern Interior/North) and men (50% vs. 43% among women).

Adrian Dix has a 45% (up 2 points) approval rating as NDP and Opposition leader (13% ‘strongly). Slightly less than four-in-ten (36%, unchanged) residents say they disapprove of his performance (16% ‘strongly’) and two-in-ten (19%) are undecided.

  • Dix has higher approval among Vancouver Island residents (53% vs. 44% Metro Vancouver, 42% Southern Interior/North) and older residents (52% among 55+ years vs. 45% among 35-54 years, 38% among 18-34 years).

British Columbians look at John Cummins’ performance as BC Conservative leader with slightly more disapproval (29%, down 3 points) than approval (24%, up 1 point). However, almost of half (47%, up 2 points) of residents have not yet formed an impression of his performance as leader.

  • Women are much more likely to have no impression of Cummins (58% vs. 35% among men).

Nearly six-in-ten (56%, down 2 points) residents say they have no impression of the job Jane Sterk is doing as Green Party leader. Currently 20% (unchanged) say they approve of her performance while 24% (up 2 points) disapprove.

  • Women are much more likely to have no impression of Sterk (66% vs. 47% among men).

Best Premier

Christy Clark continues to lead Adrian Dix as the leader who voters think would make the best Premier of British Columbia, but her lead over Dix has fallen to 6 points (from 11 points). Clark is selected by three-in-ten (31%, down 3 points) British Columbians, placing her 6 points ahead of Adrian Dix (25%, up 2 points). John Cummins is next best at 11% (down 1 point), followed by Jane Sterk at just 2% (down 2 points). Three-in-ten (30%, up 3 points) British Columbians are unsure which of the four party leaders would make the best Premier.

  • Clark’s lead over Dix is largest among men (39% Clark vs. 24% Dix), Metro Vancouver residents (34% Clark vs. 23% Dix) and younger residents (28% Clark vs. 18% Dix among 18-34 years, 33% Clark vs. 23% Dix among 35-54 years).
  • Dix does best with Vancouver Island residents (30% Dix vs. 26% Clark), women (26% Dix vs. 24% Clark) and older residents (33% Dix vs. 33% Clark among 55+ years).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 1,000 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between February 1 and February 5, 2012. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2006 Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778.373.5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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NDP Expand Lead as BC Conservatives Take BC Liberal Support



Contact

KyleBraid Kyle Braid
Vice President / Vice-Président
Ipsos Public Affairs
Work+1.778.373.5130