NDP Moves Ahead of BC Liberals

NDP (45%, up 6) Leads BC Liberals (38%, down 3)
Christy Clark (34%) Leads Adrian Dix (23%) as Best Premier

Friday, October 07, 2011

Vancouver, BC – Christy Clark’s decision not to hold a provincial election this fall is supported by a new Ipsos Reid poll showing her BC Liberals trailing the NDP by 7 points among decided voters. Christy Clark is still the number one choice as best Premier of BC, leading NDP leader Adrian Dix by 11 points.

Ballot

The NDP currently have the support of 45% of the province’s decided voters. This is a 7 point lead over the BC Liberals who are at 38% support. The BC Conservative Party is well back in third place at 12% support, followed by the Green Party at 6%. These results exclude the 20% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

These results show the NDP making the biggest shift since a May 2011 Ipsos Reid poll. The NDP are up 6 points (from 39% to 45%), while the BC Liberals have dropped 3 points (from 41% to 38%). The BC Conservatives are up 2 points (from 10% to 12%) and the Green Party is down 2 points (from 8% to 6%). Support for other parties has fallen by 2 points (from 2% to less than 1%).

  • Region: The NDP have opened up a 10 point lead in Metro Vancouver (45% NDP vs. 35% BC Lib) and enjoy a 23 point lead on Vancouver Island (54% NDP vs. 31% BC Lib). The BC Liberals have a 7 point lead in the Southern Interior/North (46% BC Lib vs. 39% NDP).
  • Gender: A substantial gender gap exists for the BC Liberals and NDP, with men favouring the Liberals by 7 points (43% BC Lib vs. 36% NDP) and women favouring the NDP by 22 points (54% NDP vs. 32% BC Lib).
  • Age: The NDP lead by 20 points with younger voters 18-34 years (48% NDP vs. 28% BC Lib) and by a narrower 6 points with voters 35-54 years (45% NDP vs. 39% BC Lib). The two main parties are essentially tied among older voter 55+ years (43% BC Lib vs. 41% NDP).

Leader Approval Ratings

British Columbians are split on the job that Christy Clark has been doing as Premier. Currently 45% say they approve of her performance (8% ‘strongly’), while 46% disapprove (24% ‘strongly’). One-in-ten (9%) are undecided about her performance as Premier.

  • Clark has higher approval among older residents (51% among 55+ years vs. 44% among 35-54 years, 38% among 18-34 years).

Adrian Dix has a 43% approval rating as NDP and Opposition leader (10% ‘strongly). Slightly less than four-in-ten (36%) residents say they disapprove of his performance (18% ‘strongly’) and two-in-ten (21%) are undecided.

  • Dix has higher approval among women (48% vs. 39% among men).

British Columbians look at John Cummins’ performance as BC Conservative leader with more disapproval (32%) than approval (23%). However, almost of half (45%) of residents have not yet formed an impression of his performance as leader.

  • Women are much more likely to have no impression of Cummins (55% vs. 35% among men).

Nearly six-in-ten (58%) residents say they have no impression of the job Jane Sterk is doing as Green Party leader. Currently 20% say they approve of her performance while 22% disapprove.

  • Sterk has higher approval among Vancouver Island residents (27% vs. 20% in Metro Vancouver, 16% in Southern Interior/North).

Best Premier

Christy Clark is the top leader in terms of who voters think would make the best Premier of British Columbia. Clark is selected by one-third (34%) of British Columbians, placing her 11 points ahead of Adrian Dix (23%). John Cummins is next best at 12%, followed by Jane Sterk at just 4%. Nearly three-in-ten (27%) British Columbians are unsure which of the four party leaders would make the best Premier.

  • Clark leads Dix across all regions, age groups, genders and income groups.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 1,000 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between September 28 and October 3, 2011. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2006 Census data.

For more details on this release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778-373-5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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NDP Moves Ahead of BC Liberals

Contact

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com