Washington, DC - Ipsos' latest poll carried out on behalf of Reuters and published today shows that 48% of likely voters say they will choose the Republican candidate at the midterm elections, compared to 44% who say they will choose the Democratic candidate.
While Ipsos does not allocate 'undecided' likely voters until our final pre-election poll, our projective modeling based on data from this poll suggests that the Republicans would take the House with 227 seats, and the Democrats would lose 48 seats to hold 208. Our models suggest that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate with 52-53 seats. Our final projections will be released on November 1st.
Other findings from this poll:
- President Obama's approval ratings have dropped from 47% to 43% since last month, with 53% disapproving of the way he is handling his job. It appears that much of this drop comes from Democrats, whose ratings of Obama have dropped from 78% approval last month to 70% this month.
- Half (49%) of the public name the economy as the most important problem facing the US
- 63% now think that things in this country are off on the wrong track (compared to 31% who think they are heading in the right direction)
- When asked from a list of items about Congressional priorities for 2011, the public display a clear priority in jobs (65% say that this is of 'crucial' importance, and 97% total say it is important). Our poll from last month further demonstrates that while there is cross-party support for the notion that both deficit and tax reduction generate jobs, there is a strong partisan divide on whether government spending creates jobs.
- Following jobs, the public would like to see Congress focused on the budget deficit (56% say this is 'crucial'), healthcare (48%), and taxes (37%).
- Other important issues include Afghanistan (35%), energy (30%), and the environment (26%)
- Over half (52%) consider 'the unemployment rate going down over a few months' to be the best bellweather of an improving economy (up from 46% in July)
- Half as many people think that 'stock market gains' and 'hearing that someone they know has found a job' are the best indicators of a recovering economy (24% and 25% respectively)
For more information on this news release please contact:
Managing Director, Public Sector Practice
Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
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