Political Polling in Ohio: Wave 1
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Washington,DC- Ipsos' most recent poll carried out on behalf of Reuters and published today shows that - as is the case across the country - Ohio Republicans appear to be much more likely to show up at the polls in 2010 (75% of Republicans are 'certain' they will vote this Novmeber, compared to 52% of Democrats). The million dollar question going into this election cycle is whether Democrats will be able to minimize this 'enthusiasm gap' presently found between their base and that of the Republicans.
In large part due to this disparity, Republican candidates enjoy an advantage in both statewide races:
- For the U.S. Senate seat, Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 43% to 36% among likely voters.
- Likewise in the Governor’s race, Republican John Kasich leads Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland 48% to 39% among likely voters.
Four in five (79%) registered voters in Ohio say the economy or jobs are the biggest problem facing Ohio. The poll asked who the people of Ohio blame for the economic situation as well, with almost half (47%) saying bankers/Wall Street are 'mostly' to blame, followed by 'Americans spending far beyond their means' (43%), the previous administration/Bush (39%), a downturn in the global economy (31%), and the current administration/Obama (26%).
The poll also contained a series of questions specifically on Kasich as part of Reuters' Special Report in Ohio. Full topline data can be downloaded by clicking the link to the right
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted August 6-8, 2010 on behalf of Reuters. For the survey, a representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 600 adults aged 18 and older across Ohio who are registered voters was interviewed by Ipsos. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire population of registered voters in Ohio been polled. Likely voters (reported on for ballot questions only) are defined as individuals currently registered to vote, who voted in the 2008 Presidential election, are a 7-10 on a 10-point likelihood to vote scale, and are interested in following news about the campaign ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a bit.’ Individuals who did not vote in the 2008 Presidential election qualify as likely voters if they are registered to vote, are an 8-10 on a 10-point likelihood to vote scale, and are interested in following news about the campaign ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a bit.’ Out of our sample of 600 registered voters, 417 are likely voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ±4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled.
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