Obama Maintains Lead in Presidential Race – Among Likely Voters, Obama 50%, McCain 42%
Obama seen as stronger on jobs (Obama 54%, McCain 38%), healthcare (Obama 56%, McCain 32%), taxes (Obama 49%, McCain 41%); McCain holds edge on national security (McCain 52%, Obama 40%)
Economy still dominates as most important issue (jobs and the economy 43%, national security 14%, leadership 10%)
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Washington, DC – A new Ipsos/McClatchy poll of likely voters indicates that Barack Obama maintains his lead over John McCain – 50% for Obama/Biden and 42% for McCain/Palin.
These figures among likely voters are consistent with last week’s Ipsos/McClatchy poll among registered voters: Obama 48% and McCain 39%.
Candidate Commitment Remains Solid…
Commitment to vote remains high among likely voters, with Obama holding an edge in commitment among those likely to turn out to vote on November 4th. Among Obama supporters, 92% report they will definitely vote for him; among McCain supporters, 81% state they will definitely vote for him.
Pocketbook Concerns Still Top Campaign Issue
Likely voters continue to focus their attention on traditional pocketbook issues. Forty-three percent (43%)of likely voters now see jobs and the economy as the single-most important issue of the campaign; nearly seven in ten likely voters (68%) rate jobs and the economy as one of the top two issues in the election campaign.
Obama trumps McCain on the Economy…
In the most recent Ipsos/McClatchy poll, likely voters see Obama as stronger than McCain on the Economy (54% versus 38%) — a 16-point lead on the main issue of the campaign. Obama also fares well on the issue of healthcare. Currently more than half (56%) of likely voters see Obama as stronger on the issue, compared to one third (32%) who view McCain as stronger on healthcare. McCain still holds a lead on national security (52% versus 40% for Obama).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 16-20. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,056 adults aged 18 and older across the United States was interviewed by Ipsos. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ± 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. Likely voters are defined as individuals currently registered to vote, who voted in the 2004 Presidential election, are a 7-10 on a 10-point likelihood to vote scale, and are interested in following news about the campaign ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a bit.’ Individuals who did not vote in the 2004 Presidential election qualify as likely voters if they are registered to vote, are an 8-10 on a 10-point likelihood to vote scale, and are interested in following news about the campaign ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a bit.’ Those individuals who have already cast their vote through early voting or an absentee ballot automatically qualify as likely voters. We interviewed 773 likely voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to U.S. Census figures. Interviews were conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Clifford Young, PhD
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
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