The Race for the White House: In a Heartbeat
Dead Heat: McCain 46%, Obama 45%
But Biden (60%) Leads Palin (47%) On Being Qualified for President
Friday, September 12, 2008
Washington, DC – A new Ipsos/McClatchy poll of Americans indicates that with less than two months remaining in the campaign for president, the race between McCain and Obama is a statistical dead heat —46% for McCain and 45% for Obama.
As further evidence of a tightening race, only a small proportion of voters remain undecided, or amenable to changing their mind. Eight in ten (79%) stated Obama voters are firmly committed to voting for him. Among McCain voters, roughly three-quarters (72%) say they will definitely vote for him.
Just a Heartbeat Away…
The poll, conducted just after the Republican National Convention, also shows that Obama’s Vice-Presidential choice Senator Joe Biden has an advantage over Alaska governor Sarah Palin, McCain’s Vice Presidential selection in terms perceived qualifications for the Presidency if necessary: 60% of registered voters say Biden is qualified to be President, while Palin trends lower at 48%.
Obama leads McCain by a 55%/34% margin among 18-34 year olds with a dead heat among 35-54 year olds. McCain leads Obama by a 53%/38% margin among 55+ year olds.
Among non-Hispanic White respondents McCain leads Obama by a 57%/34% margin, while Obama leads McCain by a 90%/3% margin among non-Hispanic Black respondents and 58%/34% among Hispanic respondents.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted September 5-9, 2008. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,018 adults across the United States was interviewed by Ipsos. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. Within this sample, Ipsos interviewed 876 respondents who self identified as registered voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ±3.3 percentage points. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to U.S. Census figures. Interviews were conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Clifford Young, PhD
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
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