Clinton (47%) Overtakes Obama (40%) Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries

Poll Shows Clinton Campaign Picking Up Steam With Democrats Nationally

Monday, May 05, 2008

Washington, DC – The latest Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend shows that on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has taken over the lead in popular support from Democrats nationally. Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question. Democratic support for Clinton remains highest from women (51%), who have a high-school education or less (58%), and very low income respondents (57% among those with an annual household income of $25,000 or less).

Americans were also asked for whom they would vote in a Presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain, and between Barack Obama and McCain. The good news for Democrats is that in either case the Democratic contender would have a slight edge on McCain. In a Presidential contest between Clinton and McCain, Clinton would garner 47% of the popular vote, with McCain picking up 42% of the vote. Should Barack Obama go up against McCain in November, 46% of Americans say they would vote for Obama compared to 42% who would vote for McCain.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted April 30th – May 4, 2008. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of 1,000 adults across the United States were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

For more information on this press release, please contact:
Michael Gross, Ph.D.
Associate Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
Washington, DC
(202) 420-2012 office
(202) 492-2249 cell

About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is one of the company’s five research specializations. In the US, it has offices in New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago and Seattle. It specializes in corporate reputation, issues management, strategic communications and sociopolitical trends, serving the needs of corporations, non-profit organizations, public relations firms, news media and governments. Its toolbox for conducting tailor-made solutions includes rapid turnaround quantitative polling, qualitative focus groups, online panels, elite and stakeholder interviewing, syndicated subscriptions, and proprietary research techniques. Ipsos Public Affairs is well known as the polling partner of The Associated Press, the world’s oldest and largest news organization.

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Clinton (47%) Overtakes Obama (40%) Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries


Michael Gross
Vice President, US
Ipsos Science Centre